Verification Suite

Run verification scenarios and parity checks to confirm the engine produces expected results for your inputs.

93 scenarios

Tax Lots

(10)

10 pending

Mar 2 is the first long-term day after a leap-day acquisition

A lot acquired on Feb 29 does not become long-term until Mar 2 of the following year.

Sale is classified as long-term

null

One sale can span multiple tax lots

A sale larger than the first lot should fully consume that lot and partially consume the next lot in deterministic order.

First lot is fully consumed for 5 shares

Second lot is partially consumed for 3 shares

null

Optimized sells LT gains before ST gains

When you're in the gains zone, optimized lot selection sells long-term gains first because LT rates beat ST rates.

First lot sold is long-term

First lot gain = $550

null

Feb 29 acquisition stays short-term through Mar 1

A lot acquired on Feb 29, 2024 is still short-term on both Feb 28 and Mar 1, 2025. Mar 2 is the first long-term day.

Still short-term on Mar 1, 2025

null

All four lot-selection buckets in correct order

Optimized lot selection should consume short-term losses first, then long-term losses, then long-term gains, and finally short-term gains.

First lot is a short-term loss

Last lot is a short-term gain

null

Biggest loss goes first within a bucket

Within the same tax bucket, optimized lot selection should choose the lot with the greatest tax benefit first.

The larger loss is sold first

null

FIFO preserves insertion order for same-day lots

When two lots share the same acquisition date, FIFO should sell the lot that was inserted first. This keeps same-day ordering deterministic instead of arbitrary.

FIFO uses the first inserted lot

null

LIFO reverses insertion order for same-day lots

When two lots share the same acquisition date, LIFO should sell the most recently inserted lot first. This preserves deterministic tie-breaking for same-day positions.

LIFO uses the last inserted lot

null

HIFO is blind to tax character

HIFO picks the highest cost basis lot regardless of whether it's LT or ST. This can be suboptimal compared to the optimized method.

Picks highest cost basis ($99.95)

null

FIFO and LIFO produce different gains

FIFO sells the oldest lot first (LT gain), LIFO sells the newest first (ST gain). Same lots, different tax outcomes.

FIFO: first lot is long-term

null

Capital Gains Netting

(13)

13 pending

Prior-year carryforward reduces a current-year short-term gain

A prior-year short-term carryforward should apply before current-year short-term gains are taxed.

Net short-term gain falls to $2,000

null

Mixed carryforward offsets both short-term and long-term gains

Short-term carryforward should offset short-term gains first and long-term carryforward should offset long-term gains first.

Net short-term gain = $3,000

Net long-term gain = $3,000

null

Mixed carryforward can exactly zero both gain buckets

When short-term and long-term carryforwards match current-year gains exactly, there should be no taxable gains and no residual carryforward.

Net short-term gain = $0

Net long-term gain = $0

null

Large mixed carryforward turns gains into a capped ordinary offset

If carryforwards exceed current-year gains in both buckets, the result should be a net loss that is capped at the ordinary-income deduction limit.

Ordinary-income offset is capped at $3,000

Short-term carryforward remains $5,000

Long-term carryforward remains $7,000

null

Short-term carryforward can create a cross-netting opportunity

A large short-term carryforward can turn a small short-term gain into a loss that then cross-nets against long-term gains.

Net short-term gain is fully eliminated

Net long-term gain falls to $7,000

null

Carryforward offsets gains before the $3k deduction

A prior-year loss carryforward must absorb current-year gains before any ordinary-income deduction is computed.

Net ST gain fully absorbed

Net LT gain fully absorbed

No ordinary-income offset remains

null

Short-term loss offsets long-term gain

Cross-character netting should let a short-term capital loss reduce a long-term capital gain before any remaining gains are taxed.

Net long-term gain = $8,000

null

Annual capital-loss deduction is capped at $3,000

With a net capital loss and no gains, only $3,000 can reduce ordinary income for a Single filer. The rest must carry forward.

Ordinary income offset = $3,000

Short-term carryforward = $7,000

null

Married filing separately uses a $1,500 loss cap

Married Filing Separately gets only a $1,500 ordinary-income offset from net capital losses rather than the standard $3,000.

Ordinary income offset = $1,500

null

Wash-sale losses do not reduce net capital gains

A wash-sale-disallowed loss should be excluded from capital-gain netting. The public scenario makes that interaction explicit instead of hiding it behind internal ledger rules.

Net short-term gain stays at $5,000

null

A large loss can offset gains across multiple tax years

A short-term loss that exceeds the annual deduction cap should carry forward into later years. This scenario shows both the immediate deduction cap and the remaining carryforward one year later.

Year 1 carryforward is $17,000

Year 2 carryforward falls to $9,000

null

Carryforwards can shrink, pause, and disappear across four years

A multi-year carryforward is not just a single rollover. It can shrink against gains, generate a smaller ordinary deduction in a no-trade year, and then fully disappear before later gains arrive.

Year 2 carryforward is down to $1,000

Year 3 ordinary offset uses the final $1,000

Year 4 has no carryforward left

null

Two-year carryforward chain

$20k loss in Y1 → $3k offset + $17k CF. Then $5k gain in Y2 is absorbed by carryforward, with $9k remaining.

Y1 offset = $3,000

Y1 carryforward = $17,000

null

A repurchase exactly 30 days after the loss still triggers a wash sale

The IRS wash-sale window is inclusive. Buying back exactly 30 days after a loss sale should still disallow the loss.

Loss is still treated as a wash sale

null

A repurchase exactly 30 days before the loss still triggers a wash sale

The backward side of the wash-sale window is also inclusive. Replacement shares bought exactly 30 days before the loss sale should still disallow the loss.

Backward match triggers wash-sale treatment

null

Cross-year wash sale still tacks the original holding period

A December loss followed by a January repurchase should still defer the loss and carry the original acquisition date into the replacement lot.

Holding period start tacks to Jun 1, 2025

Deferred loss added to basis

null

Partial match disallows only matched shares

If you sell 100 shares at a loss and repurchase only 60, only 60 shares of loss are deferred and the remaining 40-share loss stays deductible.

Disallowed loss = $1,200

null

Buy before the loss sale still triggers a wash sale

The wash-sale window works backward too. Replacement shares bought before the loss sale can still defer the loss into basis and tack the holding period.

Loss is disallowed

Deferred loss added to basis

Holding period tacks to original lot

null

Loss sale inside the 30-day window is disallowed

A repurchase within 30 days should mark the loss as a wash sale, defer the loss, and increase the replacement basis.

Loss is marked as a wash sale

Replacement basis gets a $2,000 adjustment

null

Wash-sale replacement inherits the original holding period

When a wash sale occurs, the replacement lot should tack the original acquisition date so later tax character remains correct.

Holding period start tacks to the original date

null

Repurchase on day 31 does not trigger a wash sale

A replacement trade just outside the 30-day window should leave the loss deductible and avoid any basis adjustment.

Loss remains deductible

No replacement basis adjustment

null

Substantially identical substitute ETF still triggers wash sale

If the loss asset and the replacement asset map to the same substantially-identical group, the loss should still be disallowed.

Cross-asset wash sale triggers

Deferred loss added to replacement basis

null

Non-identical replacement should not trigger a wash sale

Replacing SPY with QQQ should not trigger wash-sale treatment when the two assets sit in different identity groups.

No wash-sale disallowance

No basis adjustment

null

Disallowed losses skip netting

A wash-sale disallowed loss doesn't reduce your gains in the capital gains netting calculation.

Loss is marked as wash sale

null

Cashflow is applied before the rebalance on a rebalance day

On a rebalance day, the backtest engine should apply daily returns first, then the cashflow, and only then evaluate the rebalance.

Day 1 value becomes $1,100 after cashflow

Total contributions record the $100 cashflow

null

Weekly cashflow is included before the weekly rebalance

If cashflow arrives on the weekly rebalance day, the contribution should be included in the value that gets rebalanced.

Value on the rebalance day reaches $2,000

Final value reaches $3,000 after the next A-leg jump

null

Daily rebalance matches the weighted-return formula

With daily rebalancing, the portfolio should follow the weighted-average return of the sleeves each day. This is the core arithmetic that many higher-level backtests depend on.

Day 1 value is $1,020

Day 2 value is $1,122

null

Rebalance offsets shift weekly events earlier in the period

Offsets are part of the financial model, not UI sugar. A weekly rebalance with a two-day offset should fire deterministically earlier than the period-end schedule.

First rebalance happens on Jan 7, 2020

Second rebalance happens on Jan 14, 2020

null

Weekend one-time cashflows execute on the next trading day

A one-time cashflow scheduled on a non-trading day should snap to the next trading day instead of disappearing or executing early.

Pre-weekend value stays at $1,000

Next trading day value drops to $800

Cashflow event date snaps to Jan 6, 2020

null

Bounded periodic cashflows only fire inside their date window

Periodic cashflows can have explicit start and end dates. This scenario shows that the engine respects those bounds instead of applying the cashflow across the entire backtest.

Total contributions equal $1,500

Exactly three cashflow events occur

null

Deviation mode can rebalance without any time schedule

Deviation mode should be able to fire even when periodic rebalancing is disabled. This is an important distinction from time-based schedules.

First rebalance is deviation-triggered

The first deviation exceeds 10%

null

Either mode records when time and deviation triggers coincide

The `either` mode is not just shorthand for two separate trigger types. When both conditions fire on the same day, the event should preserve that combined reason explicitly.

The first rebalance records the combined trigger type

null

1099-B short-term gain with no wash sale

A simple under-one-year round trip should show a short-term gain and zero wash-sale adjustment in broker-style reporting.

2024 ST gain = $1,000

No wash disallowance

null

1099-B partial wash sale

A 100-share loss sale followed by only a 40-share replacement should leave a partially deductible loss and a partial wash adjustment.

Reported ST gain or loss = -$600

Wash disallowed = $400

null

1099-B long-term gain with no wash sale

Holding period classification should move a realized gain into the long-term broker 1099 bucket once the position has been held more than a year.

2025 long-term gain = $3,000

No wash disallowance

null

1099-B full wash sale

A fully matched replacement inside the window should move the current-year reported loss to zero and push the entire loss into the wash-sale adjustment column.

Reported short-term gain or loss = $0

Wash disallowed = $1,000

null

1099-B cross-year wash sale

A late-December loss sale and early-January replacement should still create a sale-year wash adjustment because the 30-day window crosses tax years.

2024 reported short-term gain or loss = $0

2024 wash disallowed = $1,000

null

1099-B splits one sale into short-term and long-term buckets

When one sale consumes both an old lot and a newly acquired lot, broker-style annual reporting should split the realized gains by tax character.

2025 long-term gain = $2,000

2025 short-term gain = $1,000

null

1099-B aggregates multiple short-term sales

Multiple short-term sales in the same year should aggregate to the correct annual broker-style short-term totals.

2024 short-term proceeds = $23,000

2024 short-term gain = $3,000

null

Short-term gains can push NIIT materially higher

Short-term gains count in both MAGI and net investment income. A taxpayer near the NIIT threshold can see a materially higher NIIT bill when short-term gains are added on top of long-term gains.

NIIT rises to $2,280

null

Illinois flat tax stays proportional at $100k income

A flat-tax state is a useful contrast to progressive schedules. Illinois should simply apply its flat rate to taxable income with no bracket transitions.

Illinois tax is $4,950

null

New York progressive tax stacks through multiple brackets

A six-figure New York income illustrates why progressive state taxes cannot be reduced to a single flat rate. The scenario verifies a hand-worked bracket example end to end using the 2025 NY schedule.

New York tax is about $5,431.75

null

NIIT kicks in above $200k

$180k income + $100k LT gain → MAGI $280k. NIIT = 3.8% × min($100k investment income, $80k over threshold).

NIIT = $3,040

null

0% LT rate for low income

$0 ordinary income + $30k LT gain → $0 federal LTCG tax. The 0% bracket extends to ~$49k for Single filers.

LT tax = $0

null

Capital gains stack on ordinary income

The same $40k LTCG is taxed at 0% with $0 wages, but at 15% with $300k wages. Capital gains "stack" on top of ordinary income.

LT tax = $0 (at $0 income)

null

Qualified dividends can be taxed at 0%

$30k qualified dividends with no wages can remain in the 0% LTCG/qualified-dividend bracket for Single filers.

Dividend tax = $0

Total tax = $0

null

Ordinary dividends are taxed at ordinary rates

$30k ordinary (non-qualified) dividends with no wages still produce federal tax because they are taxed like short-term income.

Short-term/ordinary tax > $3,000

Total tax > $3,000

null

CA state tax on $1M income > $100k

$1M taxable income in California (top bracket 13.3%). State tax should exceed $100k.

State tax > $100k

null

MFJ pays less tax than Single on $200k

$200k in short-term gains: Married Filing Jointly brackets are wider, so total federal tax is lower than Single.

Total tax > $0

null

Texas has no state income tax

Even at $1M taxable income, Texas state income tax remains $0 in the state-tax engine.

State tax = $0

null

Longest drawdown uses calendar days, including weekends

A drawdown that spans a weekend should count Saturday and Sunday in its duration. This is a common source of confusion when users expect trading days instead of calendar days.

Longest drawdown is 7 calendar days

null

Leveraged drawdown > 100%

Price path [100, 50, -10] (leveraged blowup). Max drawdown = 110%, not clamped to 100%.

Max drawdown = 110%

null

Returns capture overnight gaps

2019 closes at 100, 2020 opens at 110, closes at 132. The 2020 return is 32% (from prior close, not open).

2020 return = 32%

null

Multiple drawdowns: longest wins

Two drawdowns (1 day and 6+ days) with recovery between. The engine reports the longest one.

Longest drawdown >= 6 days

null

Sharpe ratio on near-constant returns

252 daily returns of +0.04% each (≈10% annualized) with tiny noise. rf=4%. The Sharpe ratio should be high and positive.

Sharpe > 0

Metric

Daily returns (JSON)

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  0.0004841470984807897,
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  0.00040530534852699357,
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  0.00030699051219954746,
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  0.0004972623062485625,
  0.00043299623697323975,
  0.0003383935795946636,
  0.0003004315810241897,
  0.00035401232767678573,
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  0.0004580586640989645,
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  0.0003310323886819733,
  0.0004236690681275077,
  0.0004945445154921116,
  0.00047849617132764036,
  0.00039027880924817756,
  0.0003109990651143723,
  0.00031354637006557285,
  0.00039557874367714406,
  0.0004816759999622809,
  0.0004926807185502689,
  0.00041847521192217184,
  0.0003272836806556351,
  0.00030294719804581946,
  0.00036784061397074965
]

Risk-free rate (annual)

null

Sortino > Sharpe for positive-skew returns

Returns with positive skew (many small gains, rare small losses). Sortino exceeds Sharpe because downside volatility is less than total volatility.

Sortino > Sharpe

Metric

Daily returns (JSON)

[
  -0.002,
  0.0035244129544236896,
  0.0037278922804770452,
  0.0014233600241796017,
  0.0012704074859237846,
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  0.001449631628988857,
  0.003738835752182883,
  0.0035099669156081685,
  0.0009734460721287884,
  0.0015386612125255121,
  0.0017167350860198714,
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  0.0009909016526389028,
  -0.002,
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]

null

Calmar ratio on known growth path

Value path from 100→120 over 252 trading days with a 10% drawdown. Calmar = CAGR / max drawdown.

Calmar > 0

Metric

Value series (JSON)

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  120
]

Dates (JSON)

[
  "2024-01-02",
  "2024-01-03",
  "2024-01-04",
  "2024-01-05",
  "2024-01-06",
  "2024-01-07",
  "2024-01-08",
  "2024-01-09",
  "2024-01-10",
  "2024-01-11",
  "2024-01-12",
  "2024-01-13",
  "2024-01-14",
  "2024-01-15",
  "2024-01-16",
  "2024-01-17",
  "2024-01-18",
  "2024-01-19",
  "2024-01-20",
  "2024-01-21",
  "2024-01-22",
  "2024-01-23",
  "2024-01-24",
  "2024-01-25",
  "2024-01-26",
  "2024-01-27",
  "2024-01-28",
  "2024-01-29",
  "2024-01-30",
  "2024-01-31",
  "2024-02-01",
  "2024-02-02",
  "2024-02-03",
  "2024-02-04",
  "2024-02-05",
  "2024-02-06",
  "2024-02-07",
  "2024-02-08",
  "2024-02-09",
  "2024-02-10",
  "2024-02-11",
  "2024-02-12",
  "2024-02-13",
  "2024-02-14",
  "2024-02-15",
  "2024-02-16",
  "2024-02-17",
  "2024-02-18",
  "2024-02-19",
  "2024-02-20",
  "2024-02-21",
  "2024-02-22",
  "2024-02-23",
  "2024-02-24",
  "2024-02-25",
  "2024-02-26",
  "2024-02-27",
  "2024-02-28",
  "2024-02-29",
  "2024-03-01",
  "2024-03-02",
  "2024-03-03",
  "2024-03-04",
  "2024-03-05",
  "2024-03-06",
  "2024-03-07",
  "2024-03-08",
  "2024-03-09",
  "2024-03-10",
  "2024-03-11",
  "2024-03-12",
  "2024-03-13",
  "2024-03-14",
  "2024-03-15",
  "2024-03-16",
  "2024-03-17",
  "2024-03-18",
  "2024-03-19",
  "2024-03-20",
  "2024-03-21",
  "2024-03-22",
  "2024-03-23",
  "2024-03-24",
  "2024-03-25",
  "2024-03-26",
  "2024-03-27",
  "2024-03-28",
  "2024-03-29",
  "2024-03-30",
  "2024-03-31",
  "2024-04-01",
  "2024-04-02",
  "2024-04-03",
  "2024-04-04",
  "2024-04-05",
  "2024-04-06",
  "2024-04-07",
  "2024-04-08",
  "2024-04-09",
  "2024-04-10",
  "2024-04-11",
  "2024-04-12",
  "2024-04-13",
  "2024-04-14",
  "2024-04-15",
  "2024-04-16",
  "2024-04-17",
  "2024-04-18",
  "2024-04-19",
  "2024-04-20",
  "2024-04-21",
  "2024-04-22",
  "2024-04-23",
  "2024-04-24",
  "2024-04-25",
  "2024-04-26",
  "2024-04-27",
  "2024-04-28",
  "2024-04-29",
  "2024-04-30",
  "2024-05-01",
  "2024-05-02",
  "2024-05-03",
  "2024-05-04",
  "2024-05-05",
  "2024-05-06",
  "2024-05-07",
  "2024-05-08",
  "2024-05-09",
  "2024-05-10",
  "2024-05-11",
  "2024-05-12",
  "2024-05-13",
  "2024-05-14",
  "2024-05-15",
  "2024-05-16",
  "2024-05-17",
  "2024-05-18",
  "2024-05-19",
  "2024-05-20",
  "2024-05-21",
  "2024-05-22",
  "2024-05-23",
  "2024-05-24",
  "2024-05-25",
  "2024-05-26",
  "2024-05-27",
  "2024-05-28",
  "2024-05-29",
  "2024-05-30",
  "2024-05-31",
  "2024-06-01",
  "2024-06-02",
  "2024-06-03",
  "2024-06-04",
  "2024-06-05",
  "2024-06-06",
  "2024-06-07",
  "2024-06-08",
  "2024-06-09",
  "2024-06-10",
  "2024-06-11",
  "2024-06-12",
  "2024-06-13",
  "2024-06-14",
  "2024-06-15",
  "2024-06-16",
  "2024-06-17",
  "2024-06-18",
  "2024-06-19",
  "2024-06-20",
  "2024-06-21",
  "2024-06-22",
  "2024-06-23",
  "2024-06-24",
  "2024-06-25",
  "2024-06-26",
  "2024-06-27",
  "2024-06-28",
  "2024-06-29",
  "2024-06-30",
  "2024-07-01",
  "2024-07-02",
  "2024-07-03",
  "2024-07-04",
  "2024-07-05",
  "2024-07-06",
  "2024-07-07",
  "2024-07-08",
  "2024-07-09",
  "2024-07-10",
  "2024-07-11",
  "2024-07-12",
  "2024-07-13",
  "2024-07-14",
  "2024-07-15",
  "2024-07-16",
  "2024-07-17",
  "2024-07-18",
  "2024-07-19",
  "2024-07-20",
  "2024-07-21",
  "2024-07-22",
  "2024-07-23",
  "2024-07-24",
  "2024-07-25",
  "2024-07-26",
  "2024-07-27",
  "2024-07-28",
  "2024-07-29",
  "2024-07-30",
  "2024-07-31",
  "2024-08-01",
  "2024-08-02",
  "2024-08-03",
  "2024-08-04",
  "2024-08-05",
  "2024-08-06",
  "2024-08-07",
  "2024-08-08",
  "2024-08-09",
  "2024-08-10",
  "2024-08-11",
  "2024-08-12",
  "2024-08-13",
  "2024-08-14",
  "2024-08-15",
  "2024-08-16",
  "2024-08-17",
  "2024-08-18",
  "2024-08-19",
  "2024-08-20",
  "2024-08-21",
  "2024-08-22",
  "2024-08-23",
  "2024-08-24",
  "2024-08-25",
  "2024-08-26",
  "2024-08-27",
  "2024-08-28",
  "2024-08-29",
  "2024-08-30",
  "2024-08-31",
  "2024-09-01",
  "2024-09-02",
  "2024-09-03",
  "2024-09-04",
  "2024-09-05",
  "2024-09-06",
  "2024-09-07",
  "2024-09-08",
  "2024-09-09"
]

null

CAGR of doubling in three years ≈ 26%

$100 → $200 over 756 trading days (3 years). CAGR = (200/100)^(1/3) - 1 ≈ 26%.

CAGR ≈ 26%

Metric

Value series (JSON)

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null

Withdrawal clamping on depleted portfolio

A portfolio crashes 50% in month 2, wiping out most of the withdrawal budget. ArthaPilot clamps each withdrawal to the available balance, so the total withdrawn reflects what the portfolio could actually pay, not a phantom fixed amount.

Total actually withdrawn ≤ portfolio capacity

Portfolio spent down to zero

Naive unclamped total

null

Average drawdown: full curve vs. underwater-days only

A 21-value curve: 19 all-time highs, then one trough at −10%, then recovery. One method averages only over the single drawdown observation (−10%). ArthaPilot averages the drawdown depth at every point, so the 19 ATH days (0% drawdown each) pull the average down to ~0.5%.

Full-curve average drawdown < 1%

Underwater-only average > 5%

Underwater-only method overstates vs. full-curve

null

Positive returns with no withdrawals should not fail

A deterministic positive-return history with no withdrawals should produce a 100% Monte Carlo survival rate. This scenario verifies the engine does not invent failures where none exist.

Success rate is 100%

Median terminal value exceeds $1.8M

null

Circular wrapping preserves history

Block bootstrap with 12-month history wraps around the end seamlessly. All simulated values come from the original history.

All simulations complete

null

Depleted portfolio never goes negative

-30%/month returns + $60k/year withdrawal on $100k. Once the portfolio hits $0, it stays there (no borrowing).

Success rate = 0%

null

Percentage withdrawal scales with portfolio

Moderate negative returns (-0.5%/month) with 10% annual percent-of-portfolio withdrawal. Portfolio shrinks but never hits $0.

Median terminal > $0

null

Fixed withdrawals can deplete a flat portfolio

With 0% monthly returns and a fixed $12k annual withdrawal, a $100k portfolio is eventually depleted. This illustrates pure spending-rate risk.

Success rate = 0%

Median terminal value = $0

Depletion happens within ~8 years

null

Sequence risk with identical average returns

Two retirement paths use the same return set and identical average return, but in reverse order. Early losses can deplete capital even when long-run averages match.

Return set is identical

Average return match

Bad-order path depletes earlier

Good-order path ends with more capital

null

Max-return optimization still honors a volatility ceiling

A maximum-return portfolio is only useful if it respects the risk budget the user asked for. This scenario verifies the target-volatility constraint is actually enforced.

Optimization converges

Portfolio volatility stays under 20%

null

Min-vol beats equal weight

Three assets with different volatilities. The min-volatility optimizer finds a portfolio with lower vol than naive equal-weight.

Converged

Returns matrix (JSON)

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]

Objective

Asset names (JSON)

null

Max Sortino with asymmetric returns

One asset has positive skew (many small gains, rare losses), the other negative skew. Max Sortino should favor the positive-skew asset.

Converged

PosSkew weight > NegSkew weight

Returns matrix (JSON)

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]

Objective

Asset names (JSON)

null

Leverage blocked for risk parity

risk_parity + allow_leverage=True is rejected because leverage breaks the equal-risk-contribution invariant.

Validation error (422)

null

Taxable monthly rotation creates visible tax drag

A deterministic monthly rotation between two appreciating assets can look fine pre-tax while realizing enough short-term gains to materially reduce after-tax wealth in a taxable account.

After-tax ending value is lower

Meaningful taxes are paid

Terminal drag exceeds cash taxes paid

Short-term gains are realized

null

Tax-free account removes the drag from the same trades

The exact same monthly rotation creates no tax drag when the account type is tax-free. This isolates account treatment from the trading pattern itself.

No taxes are paid

After-tax and pre-tax match

Terminal tax drag is zero

null

TLH harvests losses without breaking cooldown rules

When a taxable position falls enough to trigger tax-loss harvesting, ArthaPilot should realize the loss, rotate into the substitute ETF, and avoid immediately buying the original ticker back during the cooldown window.

At least one harvest sell occurs

No immediate SPY buyback during cooldown

Harvested losses are meaningful

null

Cross-year wash sale restates the prior-year tax bill

A loss realized near year-end and repurchased within 30 days in the next tax year should create wash-sale records and change the prior year's settled tax bill.

Cross-year wash sales are detected

Disallowed loss is material

Prior-year bill changes after restatement

null

Ordinary dividends create drag in taxable accounts

The same bond-fund dividend stream should produce tax drag in a taxable account and none in a tax-free account, isolating dividend taxation from the market path.

Taxable account pays dividend tax

Tax-free account pays no dividend tax

Taxable after-tax value is lower

Tax-free after-tax value matches pre-tax

null

Fees reduce optimal leverage

Same μ/σ but with fees: optimal leverage (net) is lower than optimal leverage (gross).

Net optimal < Gross optimal

null

Mixed 1x + 3x = 2x effective

$5k SPY (1x) + $5k UPRO (3x): total exposure $20k / total value $10k = 2.0x effective leverage.

Effective leverage = 2.0x

null

Volatility drag on 2x LETF

Alternating +10%/−10% daily returns for 252 days. The 2x leveraged ETF loses more than the unleveraged version due to volatility drag.

2x LETF ending value < 1.0

Unleveraged also loses

null