Monte Carlo
Stress-test plans with simulated return paths, percentile bands, and failure-rate context instead of relying on a single deterministic line.
Monte Carlo is for plan-risk questions: sequence risk, success ranges, and distribution-aware planning outcomes.
This page covers what the simulation models, what inputs matter most, and how to interpret the percentile output.
Monte Carlo is not a substitute for explicit historical backtests when the question is about how a specific strategy behaved. Use it when you need distributions, not when you need exact historical path replay.
Does Monte Carlo tell me what will happen?
No. It gives a probability distribution under stated assumptions. Review the return, volatility, and cash-flow inputs carefully, since the output is only as reliable as those choices.