How is this different from regular Monte Carlo?

Regular Monte Carlo projects portfolio paths before tax effects. Tax-aware mode applies saved household, account, and holdings context to each path so after-tax success rate, terminal value, and lifetime tax estimates can be reviewed.

Why is tax-aware Monte Carlo Pro-gated?

Each path runs higher-cost account-level tax calculations. The Pro gate covers that heavier compute path and keeps the v1 path count bounded.

Tax-Aware Monte Carlo

Tax-Aware Monte Carlo for After-Tax Retirement Outcomes

Model simulated retirement paths after household taxes, account types, RMDs, and withdrawal assumptions are applied.

A pre-tax Monte Carlo run can hide the timing effects that matter in retirement: taxable withdrawals, RMDs, account placement, and annual tax drag.

Tax-aware Monte Carlo routes each simulated path through saved household, account, and holdings context so the after-tax output is inspectable rather than implied.

Open retirement example See Pro plans

Workflow screenshots

What the workflow looks like in practice

ArthaPilot Monte Carlo configuration showing tax-aware simulation controls and household context. — Tax-aware mode keeps household context, projection start, withdrawal rule, and path-count limits visible before running simulated paths.

ArthaPilot Monte Carlo results showing populated success-rate, percentile, and outcome diagnostics. — Review populated success-rate, percentile, and outcome diagnostics instead of stopping at an empty setup screen.

Start with one question

See the workflow before opening the tool

After-tax success range

How does the plan look after taxes, RMDs, and account context are applied to each path?

Output previewAfter-tax success rate | terminal value percentiles | lifetime tax paid percentiles

Open retirement example →

Tax-path diagnostics

Which simulated years show tax pressure, RMD effects, or cash-shortfall risk?

Output previewAnnual after-tax fan chart | RMD indicators | cash-shortfall incidence

See Pro plans →

What tax-aware mode adds

Path-by-path tax calculations using saved household and account context.
After-tax success rate and terminal value percentiles.
Lifetime tax paid percentiles and annual after-tax path visualization.
RMD and cash-shortfall indicators when those events appear in the simulation.

Inputs to inspect before relying on a run

Household tax profile, filing status, and account tax treatment.
Holdings snapshot date and whether the snapshot reflects the intended portfolio.
Return model, withdrawal rule, simulation count, and projection start date.

Current v1 boundaries

Tax-aware Monte Carlo is intentionally bounded while the workflow matures. In v1, paths are capped at 500, some dynamic withdrawal rules are unavailable, and the result should be read as scenario modeling under stated assumptions.

Interpretation boundary

This workflow estimates after-tax paths for configured scenarios. It does not recommend withdrawals, conversions, trades, or filing positions.

FAQ

How is this different from regular Monte Carlo?: Regular Monte Carlo projects portfolio paths before tax effects. Tax-aware mode applies saved household, account, and holdings context to each path so after-tax success rate, terminal value, and lifetime tax estimates can be reviewed.
Why is tax-aware Monte Carlo Pro-gated?: Each path runs higher-cost account-level tax calculations. The Pro gate covers that heavier compute path and keeps the v1 path count bounded.

Monte Carlo Guide

Review the standard Monte Carlo workflow and inputs.

Monte Carlo Docs

Read the methodology and interpretation guide.

Tax-Aware Backtesting

Compare historical portfolio paths with explicit tax assumptions.

Roth Conversion IRMAA and ACA

Inspect conversion schedules with MAGI-sensitive thresholds visible.