Leveraged ETF behavior
TQQQ vs QQQ: leveraged ETF behavior
Compare a Nasdaq-100 fund with 3x daily leverage against the unleveraged fund, with an emphasis on how daily reset compounds.
Modeled result
From 2011 to 2025, TQQQ finished ahead of QQQ before tax and retained about $964,491 more in estimated end-date sale proceeds after taxes paid during the test, from the same $10,000 start.
Historical model
Growth of $10,000
2011-01-03 to 2025-12-31
| Date | TQQQ | QQQ |
|---|---|---|
| Approx. Jan 2011 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| Approx. Jul 2011 | $11,876 | $10,741 |
| Approx. Oct 2011 | $8,473 | $9,895 |
| Approx. Apr 2012 | $14,700 | $12,147 |
| Approx. Jul 2012 | $12,264 | $11,547 |
| Approx. Jan 2013 | $14,275 | $12,311 |
| Approx. Apr 2013 | $14,477 | $12,440 |
| Approx. Oct 2013 | $26,152 | $15,308 |
| Approx. Jan 2014 | $32,935 | $16,596 |
| Approx. Jul 2014 | $42,140 | $18,249 |
| Approx. Oct 2014 | $43,972 | $18,648 |
| Approx. Apr 2015 | $56,080 | $20,475 |
| Approx. Jul 2015 | $62,626 | $21,370 |
| Approx. Feb 2016 | $43,937 | $19,584 |
| Approx. May 2016 | $46,967 | $20,200 |
| Approx. Nov 2016 | $58,846 | $22,044 |
| Approx. Feb 2017 | $79,289 | $24,482 |
| Approx. Aug 2017 | $108,298 | $27,471 |
| Approx. Nov 2017 | $138,559 | $30,002 |
| Approx. May 2018 | $170,685 | $33,109 |
| Approx. Aug 2018 | $199,839 | $35,193 |
| Approx. Feb 2019 | $156,459 | $33,980 |
| Approx. May 2019 | $176,838 | $35,775 |
| Approx. Nov 2019 | $230,306 | $40,031 |
| Approx. Feb 2020 | $277,557 | $43,058 |
| Approx. Aug 2020 | $483,537 | $58,114 |
| Approx. Nov 2020 | $489,453 | $59,703 |
| Approx. Jun 2021 | $615,887 | $66,094 |
| Approx. Sep 2021 | $935,941 | $76,312 |
| Approx. Mar 2022 | $532,013 | $65,295 |
| Approx. Jun 2022 | $415,074 | $62,359 |
| Approx. Dec 2022 | $265,259 | $57,335 |
| Approx. Mar 2023 | $285,163 | $60,210 |
| Approx. Sep 2023 | $502,079 | $75,299 |
| Approx. Dec 2023 | $624,137 | $82,430 |
| Approx. Jun 2024 | $950,608 | $98,026 |
| Approx. Sep 2024 | $899,477 | $98,644 |
| Approx. Mar 2025 | $806,661 | $98,921 |
| Approx. Jun 2025 | $1,077,693 | $113,430 |
| Approx. Dec 2025 | $1,372,514 | $126,625 |
| Holding | Before tax | Value after taxes paid | If sold at end | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
TQQQ 3x Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ) | $1,372,514 | $1,360,751 | $1,068,888 | -81.66% |
QQQ Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) | $126,625 | $122,933 | $104,397 | -35.12% |
TQQQ
3x Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ)
- After-tax if sold at end
- $1,068,888
- Before tax
- $1,372,514
- Value after taxes paid
- $1,360,751
- Max drawdown
- -81.66%
QQQ
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)
- After-tax if sold at end
- $104,397
- Before tax
- $126,625
- Value after taxes paid
- $122,933
- Max drawdown
- -35.12%
Detailed metrics
| Holding | Pre-tax value | Pre-tax CAGR | Max drawdown | Value after taxes paid | Tax paid | Embedded tax | If sold at end | CAGR if sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3x Nasdaq-100 (TQQQ) TQQQ | $1,372,514 | 38.86% | -81.66% | $1,360,751 | $7,488 | $291,863 | $1,068,888 | 36.56% |
Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) QQQ | $126,625 | 18.45% | -35.12% | $122,933 | $1,103 | $18,536 | $104,397 | 16.94% |
Assumptions
$10,000 lump sum; distributions reinvested; monthly rebalancing; 2011-01-03 to 2025-12-31.
Tax profile: Single filer, $150,000 income, taxable account, HIFO lots, 2026 federal brackets, no state tax.
FAQ
- Does TQQQ return three times QQQ over the long run?
- No. TQQQ targets three times the daily return and resets each day, so over multiple days its return is path dependent. In volatile markets, compounding and volatility drag can pull the long-run result well away from three times the index.
- Is this comparison a recommendation to hold a leveraged ETF?
- No. It shows how daily reset leverage behaves so the mechanics are visible. These products carry magnified drawdowns and path dependence, and this page models the behavior instead of advising any position.
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