Balanced vs all equity
60/40 vs 100% S&P 500
Compare a balanced 60/40 portfolio against an all-equity S&P 500 portfolio across the same pre-tax historical window.
Modeled result
From 2005 to 2025, SPY finished ahead of SPY 60% / AGG 40% before tax.
Historical model
Growth of $10,000
2005-01-03 to 2025-12-31
| Date | Classic 60/40 | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Approx. Jan 2005 | $10,000 | $10,000 |
| Approx. Sep 2005 | $10,301 | $10,357 |
| Approx. Jan 2006 | $10,616 | $10,873 |
| Approx. Oct 2006 | $11,189 | $11,676 |
| Approx. Feb 2007 | $11,803 | $12,568 |
| Approx. Nov 2007 | $12,412 | $13,273 |
| Approx. Mar 2008 | $11,718 | $11,725 |
| Approx. Dec 2008 | $8,933 | $7,319 |
| Approx. Apr 2009 | $9,410 | $7,766 |
| Approx. Dec 2009 | $11,468 | $10,292 |
| Approx. May 2010 | $11,916 | $10,784 |
| Approx. Jan 2011 | $12,923 | $12,023 |
| Approx. May 2011 | $13,390 | $12,522 |
| Approx. Feb 2012 | $14,013 | $12,955 |
| Approx. Jun 2012 | $14,201 | $13,091 |
| Approx. Mar 2013 | $15,654 | $15,265 |
| Approx. Jul 2013 | $16,408 | $16,682 |
| Approx. Apr 2014 | $17,842 | $18,910 |
| Approx. Aug 2014 | $18,379 | $19,521 |
| Approx. Apr 2015 | $19,806 | $21,612 |
| Approx. Sep 2015 | $18,896 | $20,085 |
| Approx. May 2016 | $19,940 | $21,452 |
| Approx. Sep 2016 | $20,861 | $22,735 |
| Approx. Jun 2017 | $22,611 | $26,024 |
| Approx. Oct 2017 | $23,487 | $27,665 |
| Approx. Jul 2018 | $24,787 | $30,420 |
| Approx. Nov 2018 | $24,437 | $29,808 |
| Approx. Aug 2019 | $26,323 | $31,569 |
| Approx. Dec 2019 | $28,142 | $35,034 |
| Approx. Aug 2020 | $31,229 | $39,431 |
| Approx. Jan 2021 | $32,715 | $42,476 |
| Approx. Sep 2021 | $36,102 | $50,087 |
| Approx. Jan 2022 | $35,617 | $49,986 |
| Approx. Oct 2022 | $30,781 | $42,912 |
| Approx. Feb 2023 | $33,077 | $47,195 |
| Approx. Nov 2023 | $35,010 | $52,077 |
| Approx. Mar 2024 | $39,470 | $61,862 |
| Approx. Dec 2024 | $44,363 | $72,899 |
| Approx. Apr 2025 | $41,647 | $65,310 |
| Approx. Dec 2025 | $49,332 | $83,562 |
| Holding | Ending value | CAGR | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
SPY 60% / AGG 40% Classic 60/40 | $49,332 | 7.90% | -35.56% |
SPY S&P 500 only | $83,562 | 10.64% | -55.19% |
SPY 60% / AGG 40%
Classic 60/40
- Ending value
- $49,332
- CAGR
- 7.90%
- Max drawdown
- -35.56%
SPY
S&P 500 only
- Ending value
- $83,562
- CAGR
- 10.64%
- Max drawdown
- -55.19%
Pre-tax results only. Bond-interest taxation and taxable gains from rebalancing are not included in this comparison.
Detailed metrics
| Holding | Pre-tax value | Pre-tax CAGR | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|
Classic 60/40 SPY 60% / AGG 40% | $49,332 | 7.90% | -35.56% |
S&P 500 only SPY | $83,562 | 10.64% | -55.19% |
Assumptions
$10,000 lump sum; distributions reinvested; monthly rebalancing; 2005-01-03 to 2025-12-31.
FAQ
- Does adding bonds always reduce return?
- Not necessarily. Bonds lower volatility and drawdowns in most windows, and the return difference depends on the period. In some windows the balanced mix trails all-equity; in others its smaller drawdowns change the outcome. The backtest shows the tradeoff for your inputs.
- How do taxes affect a 60/40 portfolio?
- This page does not estimate them. In a taxable account the bond sleeve can generate ordinary-income interest, while rebalancing can realize gains. Model those effects in a separate tax-aware run.
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Run this pre-tax comparison with your own dates.
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