Tax-Aware Retirement Simulator
Tax-Aware Retirement Simulator
The Tax-Aware Retirement Simulator tests one household spending plan across historical and Monte Carlo paths, with calculated yearly taxes and account-specific withdrawals.
Pinned household example
One plan, 70 historical starting points
The plan funds all 30 years in 60 starts and runs short in 10. A median result alone misses that sequence risk.
60 funded 30 years
10 ran short
| Outcome | Value |
|---|---|
| Median ending balance | $549,000 at age 95 |
| Median failed path | First shortfall at age 91 |
| Worst sequence start | 1929 |
Inputs used
- Household plan
- $1,000,000 total: $300,000 taxable, $600,000 traditional, $100,000 Roth; $42,000 fixed-real annual spending from age 65 through age 94; terminal balance at age 95
- Portfolio
- 60% U.S. stocks, 40% U.S. bonds; 65% taxable cost-basis ratio
- Tax and scope
- Single filer in California; progressive 2026 federal tax model; California 2026 schedule held fixed in real dollars; historical paths only; no added income streams or IRMAA
- History and policy
- Historical annual real returns: 1926–2024; 1926–1927 are retained pre-source static extensions, and the cited source starts in 1928. Withdrawal order: taxable, then traditional, then Roth. Roth conversions: disabled.
Engine-backed sample from pinned inputs. Values are in real dollars.
Modeled estimate, not a withdrawal, conversion, or filing recommendation.
Before you run it
Link the household you want to model, then confirm account balances, cost basis, filing status, state, spending, and the projection horizon.
FAQ
- How is this different from a retirement calculator that uses one tax rate?
- A flat-rate calculator applies one average tax assumption. The Retirement Planner calculates federal and state taxes each year, then tracks account-specific withdrawals, RMDs, long-term gains, NIIT, taxable Social Security, and optional IRMAA.
- Does the Retirement Planner model ACA subsidies?
- No. Use the Roth Conversion Planner or Decumulation Studio when ACA premium tax credits are part of the decision. Both read ACA inputs from the saved household tax context.
- Do I need Pro to run a simulation?
- Everyone can use the full configuration form. Running a plan requires Pro because each analysis simulates tax-aware withdrawals against your saved household.