Defense First
Defense First (Carlson, 2025): when SPY out-ranks BIL on trailing 12-month return, rank SPY together with the four-asset defensive basket (TLT, GLD, PDBC, UUP) by 13612W momentum and hold the top 1. Otherwise drop SPY and hold the top 1 of the defensive basket alone. The unconditional defensive state guarantees the portfolio never sits in SPY when SPY trails BIL.
- Type: Tactical
- Frequency: monthly
- Asset classes: US Equity, Long-Term Treasuries, Gold, Commodities, US Dollar
- Backtest window: 2007-05-30 to 2026-09-21
- 1Y
- 63.8%
- 3Y
- 125.6%
- CAGR
- 31.0%
- Max DD
- -16.6%
- Sharpe
- 1.27
Methodology
- Compare SPY's 12-month trailing return against BIL.
- If SPY ranks above BIL, rank SPY/TLT/GLD/PDBC/UUP by 13612W and hold top-1.
- Otherwise rank TLT/GLD/PDBC/UUP by 13612W and hold top-1.
Source: Carlson, T. (2025). Defense First
Headline backtest performance as of 2026-09-21.