Changelog

Adds Planning Comparison and a unified planning tax kernel (unified_v1) shared by Retirement Planner, Roth Conversion Planner, and Decumulation Studio, plus portfolio-specific Workspace Compare visuals. Turns Household Tax Opportunities into a persisted workflow with a Pro review bundle.

Planning Comparison

• New Pro tool at /planning/comparison lines up saved runs from Retirement Planner, Roth Conversion Planner, and Decumulation Studio and renders a unified summary, cliff-hit counts, and yearly cashflow.
• Yearly cashflow rows from Decumulation Studio are marked with an asterisk and footnote because tax is spread uniformly across the schedule rather than computed per simulation year. Retirement and Roth rows carry exact per-year tax.
• Comparisons are private. Share links are rejected at the route and service layers.
• Saved runs that predate the unified tax model surface a tax-model mismatch warning so users do not silently compare results from different engines.

Unified Planning Engine

• Retirement Planner, Roth Conversion Planner, and Decumulation Studio now share a single tax kernel covering progressive federal and state brackets, ordinary and LTCG stacking, NIIT MAGI, IRMAA with the two-year MAGI lag, and ACA household income. Every run stamps tax_kernel_version="unified_v1" so cross-tool comparisons can detect drift.
• Bracket-aware cliff guards now scale year-N ordinary income against year-N brackets at non-zero inflation. The prior behavior compared nominal year-N income against year-0 brackets and spuriously rejected valid Roth conversion schedules.
• Same-year tax payments funded from traditional accounts route through the Roth basis tracker, so the 10% pre-59.5 early-withdrawal penalty fires. HSA fallback funding applies the 20% non-qualified HSA penalty (IRC §223(f)(4)) for owners under 65.
• Retirement Planner cohorts accept a prior_magi_history seed and warn when an age-63-or-older member is being simulated without one. The first two simulated years would otherwise understate IRMAA because the two-year MAGI lag has no history to reference.

Household Tax Opportunities

• Each opportunity row now supports watch, dismiss, snooze, and mark-reviewed actions. Decisions persist per household and survive snapshot refreshes. Concurrent edits are serialized so bursts of clicks do not lose state.
• New "changed since last review" view highlights rows where the underlying lot or price has moved since the last action. A per-row stale badge and a section-level alert call out reviewed rows whose snapshot has since been replaced.
• New preferences toolbar controls the tax-loss-harvesting percent threshold, dollar floor, fallback dollar minimum, and stale-snapshot warning window.
• Per-section CSV exports are joined by a Pro review bundle that packages all four sections plus an assumptions file as a single ZIP. Non-Pro users see an upgrade affordance on the review-bundle control instead of a disabled button.
• Wash-sale, holding-period, and NIIT-MAGI threshold boundaries are now covered by symmetric regression tests on both sides of every cliff so future changes cannot silently shift a boundary by a day or a dollar.

Workspace Compare

• Compare two saved Portfolio Backtest runs side by side with portfolio-specific visuals: the primary non-benchmark portfolio ranking, a risk and return scatter, an annual return distribution, and a calendar-year returns table.

Comparison Hub

• /compare is now the primary entry point for the workflow comparison against alternative tools. Responsive cards replace the previous wide table and the per-competitor SEO pages anchor back into the hub workflow.

Adds Start Date Sensitivity for portfolio backtests and longer rebalance cadences for Portfolio Backtest, Strategy Builder, Tactical Allocation, Backtest Optimizer, Household implementation settings, and Rebalancing Comparison.

Start Date Sensitivity

• Portfolio Backtest results now include a Start Date tab for full chart responses. It plots fixed-window CAGR by eligible start date, with selectable 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year windows when the returned history supports them.
• The table below the chart shows each portfolio's best start, worst start, CAGR spread, and number of historical windows, so timing risk can be compared across portfolios without exporting the path first.

Rebalancing

• Portfolio Backtest, Strategy Builder, Tactical Allocation, Backtest Optimizer, Household implementation settings, and Rebalancing Comparison now support every-2-years and every-5-years rebalance cadences.
• Multi-year cadences use the same deterministic trading-day scheduler as existing monthly, quarterly, and annual runs: 504 trading days for every 2 years and 1,260 trading days for every 5 years.

Adds four planning tools and two retirement spending rules. Decumulation Studio compares Roth conversion and withdrawal schedules under tax-cliff constraints. Asset-Location Backtester compares naive account placement against tax-aware household placement. Household Tax Opportunities surfaces harvestable losses, gain candidates, and wash-sale risks from saved account lots. Retirement Planner adds ABW and TPAW spending rules. Synthetic ticker coverage expands across momentum, leveraged, dividend, commodity, sector, gold, and Bitcoin ETFs.

Decumulation Studio

• New tool that compares multi-year Roth conversion and withdrawal schedules for retirement under one of five goals: fill the current tax bracket, stay under an IRMAA tier, grow inflation-adjusted terminal wealth, increase modeled ACA premium credits, or reduce modeled lifetime tax.
• Adds a marginal-cost heatmap so users can see where each added dollar is most expensive under the selected assumptions. A year-by-year breakdown shows whether federal brackets, capital gains, NIIT, IRMAA, ACA, or state tax is driving the modeled cost.

Retirement Planner

• Two new withdrawal strategies: ABW (Bogleheads amortization-based) and TPAW, available as primary spending rules and in the comparison rail.
• New metric: 10th-percentile sustainable spending floor, showing the lower-end real annual spending level across simulated paths.

Household Tax Opportunities

• New page surfaces harvestable losses, gain-harvest candidates, embedded gains, and wash-sale risks from your latest saved holdings. Free for signed-in users; per-section CSV exports are Pro.
• Wash-sale detection separates already-triggered violations from forward replacement risk in traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs, and HSAs.
• Headroom to the next tax bracket and to the NIIT threshold is shown when using the 2026 or historical federal brackets. Custom and flat modes show a warning instead of unsupported numbers.
• Stale-snapshot warning fires once the snapshot is more than 90 days old. Spousal accounts pool under MFJ; non-spouse member accounts are excluded with an explicit warning on the affected row.

Asset-Location Backtester

• New Pro household tool compares naive proportional account placement against tax-aware placement using a saved household and holdings snapshot.
• Results show after-tax CAGR delta, terminal wealth delta, attributed investment-tax drag saved, placement tables, and annual attribution across capital gains, dividends, NIIT, state tax, loss benefits, and wash-sale tags.
• Runs save as private analyses with immutable workspace references, so reopening a run resolves the exact household and holdings versions used for the original comparison.

Synthetic Tickers

• New synthetics for momentum ETFs SPMO, FMTM, and VFMO.
• Expanded coverage across leveraged ETFs, dividend and Avantis factor proxies, cash and Treasury ETFs, commodity wrappers, semiconductor and biotech sector proxies, gold share-classes, and spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Portfolio Dashboard becomes the unified landing page for saved account context, inline tax profile editing, live strategy monitoring, draft trade tables, notifications, and allocation drift review. Adds a referral program that credits one month of Pro when a referred friend completes a paid subscription.

Portfolio Dashboard

• The tax profile configuration is now an inline accordion on the dashboard. Expand it to edit filing status, tax context, accounts, and members without leaving the page.
• Live strategy monitoring shows all active strategies with a pulsing status indicator, current signal state, and a pending trades table with account, ticker, side, shares, value, and reason columns. Check Signals runs an on-demand signal evaluation against the latest available market data.
• Portfolio overview KPIs (total market value, gain/loss, taxable share, drift from target) render in a compact four-column grid. Gain/loss uses green or red coloring based on sign.
• Allocation drift table shows current vs target weight and signed drift percentage for each asset in the portfolio.

Notifications

• Added a notification bell to the sidebar. Live strategy signal evaluations and trade recommendations surface as in-app notifications with read/unread state.

Navigation

• Portfolio Dashboard is now in its own top-level section in the sidebar, above Research Workspace, for quicker access.
• Portfolio nav bar simplified from three steps to two (Overview and Plan and run).

Holdings Import V2

• Server-authoritative holdings import with a preview step before committing. Paste CSV or upload a file, review the parsed lots in a modal, then commit to save. Broker presets handle format differences across major brokerages.

Referrals

• Every account now has a referral code in Settings. When a friend enters it during Pro checkout on Stripe and completes a paid subscription, your billing account receives one month of Pro credit on the next invoice. Referrers do not need an active Pro subscription to earn credits.
• Reward history shows credited, pending, ineligible, and reversed referrals with the date used, date applied, and amount. Refunds and disputes that fully reverse a paid invoice automatically claw back the corresponding referral credit; partial refunds leave the credit in place.
• The Pricing page surfaces an inline banner when a referral code is present in the URL (?ref=...) and reminds users they can enter a code on the next checkout screen even without one in the link.

Adds Match Factor Exposure, Roth Conversion Planner, tax-aware Monte Carlo, holdout validation for backtests and strategies, retirement tax-aware cash-flow decomposition, and Strategy Leaderboard comparison upgrades.

Match Factor Exposure

• Added a new tool that finds long-only candidate weights that approximate a target ticker's factor loadings across CAPM, Fama-French, Carhart, FF5, q-factor, AQR-style, and fixed-income factor models.
• Results include target vs achieved betas, per-leg candidate betas, beta distance, tracking error, tracking correlation, active alpha, active R-squared, and aligned target vs reconstructed excess-return series.
• Free tier allows 5 candidates per request and 10 successful runs per day. Pro allows up to 25 candidates per request with no daily tool cap.

Walk-Forward Validation

• Portfolio Backtest now supports an optional holdout split. Choose an in-sample end date and each portfolio result includes paired in-sample and out-of-sample metric tables computed from the same realized backtest path.
• Strategy Builder now returns a strategy-level holdout metric block, including benchmark comparison when a benchmark ticker is configured. Warnings explain when the requested split date has to snap to an earlier trading day.
• The split overlay reuses the canonical metric pipeline, preserves real/nominal risk-free handling, suppresses tax-aware and dividend-income metrics that are not replayed per slice, and stores the setting in saved analyses, share links, and execution fingerprints.

Retirement Planner

• Added cash flow and tax decomposition for tax-aware results. Median tax buckets are shown separately from median total tax. A Tax median reconciliation node surfaces the difference when independently medianed buckets do not sum to median total tax, and an Engine cash residual node surfaces the engine accounting gap between cash sources and uses (up to roughly 10 percent in mixed RMD and discretionary years), which is not solely a median aggregation artifact.

Tax-Aware Monte Carlo

• Monte Carlo has a new tax-aware mode that runs every simulated return path through the tax engine. The result surfaces an annual after-tax probability-of-success curve, an after-tax wealth fan chart, a terminal after-tax wealth distribution, and lifetime-tax-paid percentiles alongside the existing pre-tax response.
• Available on Pro. Tax-aware Monte Carlo analyses are private and cannot be shared.

Roth Conversion Planner

• Added a deterministic multi-year Roth conversion planner that compares a baseline path with a proposed conversion schedule under ordinary bracket caps, IRMAA, ACA, LTCG, NIIT, and Roth 5-year-clock constraints.

Strategy Leaderboard

• Added row-level compare selection and a shared comparison chart that crops selected strategies to their common overlap and normalizes each curve to $10,000 at the comparison start.

User Experience

• Floating sidebar with collapse persistence, unified AppTabs across tools, consistent interaction states, and layout-stability fixes.
• Form interactions across the optimizer, Monte Carlo, Retirement Planner, and ranked-allocation editors now use consistent validation and confirmation states.

Tax Profile Setup and the new Tax-Aware Allocator: model your full filing unit (members, accounts, lots, RMDs, wash sales, asset location) once, then run an end-to-end tax simulation that routes trades across taxable and tax-advantaged accounts on every rebalance.

Tax Profile Setup

• New Tax Profile & Accounts page is the one place to declare who is in the filing unit and what they own. Filing status, federal bracket mode (current 2026, historical, custom, or flat), ordinary income, resident and work state, capital-loss carryforwards, and per-account tax-loss-harvesting policy all live here now.
• First-class members. Each member has a stable id, name, birth year, and relationship (self / spouse / dependent / other). Accounts attach to a member, which means RMDs aggregate per individual instead of being silently cross-assigned.
• Per-account starting holdings with full lot detail (ticker, shares, cost basis per share, date acquired). Paste-from-CSV supports brokerage exports.

Tax-Aware Allocator

• New per-lot tax simulation that runs the portfolio end-to-end over your chosen window. Cashflows (contributions, withdrawals, RMDs) hit the right account; the rebalancer routes target-allocation drift into BUYs and SELLs across taxable and tax-advantaged accounts, honoring an optional account preference order and a configurable taxable-drift budget so taxable sells only fire when drift exceeds the tolerance.
• Cross-account wash-sale tracking. Loss sales in any account are matched against replacement buys anywhere in the portfolio within the 61-day window, with Rev. Rul. 2008-5 basis-bump suppression for tax-advantaged replacements (disallowed losses to a Roth or IRA are permanently lost instead of bumping basis you cannot recover).
• RMD modeling under SECURE 2.0 with start-age 73 (1951-1959 cohort) or 75 (1960+). Same-owner IRAs aggregate; 401(k)s are per-plan; HSAs and Roth accounts are exempt. Year-end distributions fire on the actual last NYSE trading day of the calendar year. Optional April-1 first-year grace defers the first RMD into the following year. Under-distribution incurs the IRC §4974 25% excise tax and rolls into total tax paid; the per-account shortfall is surfaced on the result.
• Tax-loss harvesting per taxable account. Substitute-ticker map and a configurable cooldown window (default 31 days, so the IRS "more than 30" minimum is satisfied) keep harvested positions out of the wash window. The TLH hints panel surfaces would-be harvests on the latest holdings so you can act on them outside the simulation if you prefer.
• Asset-location recommendations. Each held asset is classified by tax efficiency (e.g. core taxable bonds and REITs are tax-inefficient income; broad-market equities and municipal bonds are efficient) and the recommender suggests which assets to prefer in tax-deferred vs taxable accounts given the portfolio's actual account-type mix.
• Late-year qualified-dividend handling. Dividends whose 121-day holding-period determination crosses Jan 1 are booked provisionally as ordinary income at the dividend date, then re-classified intra-year as soon as the window closes (the daily after-tax series stops carrying the over-conservative provisional booking until the next year boundary).
• Routing infeasibilities are surfaced explicitly instead of silently truncating. When a target buy cannot be funded, the result lists the asset, the requested dollar amount, the decision-time available cash, and the reason.
• Configurable starting-balance seed for first-year RMD math. Pass an explicit prior-year-end balance per account to use the IRS Dec 31 prior-year FMV; omit it and the engine falls back to the day-0 price snapshot.

Privacy And Tier Gating

• Sign in (free) to save your tax profile across sessions; Pro to run the backtest. Anonymous viewers see the full configuration form and a clear sign-in CTA; free-tier signed-in users see the same form and a Pro-upgrade CTA on the Run button.
• Tax profile and holdings snapshot data are private-only by policy. Other users cannot list, view, clone, or import your configuration.

Portfolio Optimizer adds direct metric constraints, broader walk-forward objectives, and explicit CAGR reporting for constrained runs.

Portfolio Optimizer Constraints

• Mean-Variance optimization now supports direct metric constraints for minimum CAGR, maximum volatility, maximum CVaR, minimum Sortino ratio, and maximum drawdown. Objectives such as maximum Sharpe now search only within portfolios that satisfy the requested metric bounds.
• Optimizer results now include CAGR alongside expected return, volatility, Sharpe, Sortino, CVaR, and rebalancing bonus, so users can verify minimum-return constraints directly in the result table and CSV export. The CSV keeps the prior metric column order and appends CAGR near the end of the metric table.

Walk-Forward Objectives

• Backtest optimization adds objectives for maximum Calmar, maximum Omega, minimum Ulcer Index, and minimum CVaR 95%, complementing the existing CAGR, Sharpe, Sortino, UPI, max-drawdown, longest-drawdown, SWR, and PWR objectives.
• Saved Mean-Variance studies and shared optimizer links preserve the new metric-constraint inputs, so reopened analyses continue to use the same feasibility rules.

Retirement Planner gains opt-in multi-strategy comparison, all seven spending rules in the primary picker. Monte Carlo adds Student-t and regime-switching return models plus an opt-in rolling-historical companion.

Monte Carlo Return Models

• Added Student-t (fat-tailed) and regime-switching (2-state Markov) return models alongside the existing parametric, historical-bootstrap, and block-bootstrap choices. Student-t degrees of freedom default to a maximum-likelihood fit from history (clamped to [3, 30]) and are echoed in the response.
• New opt-in rolling-historical companion replays the same plan across every overlapping past window of matching length.

Multi-Strategy Comparison

• New "Compare withdrawal strategies" toggle on the Retirement Planner form. When enabled, multiple spending rules run side by side on the same simulation (shared return sequence per cohort or path), so the year-by-year comparison is apples-to-apples. Up to four entries per request.
• All seven strategies are selectable from the picker: Fixed Real, Percent of Portfolio, Guyton-Klinger, Variable Percentage Withdrawal, CAPE-Based, RMD-Based, and Blanchett Smile. CAPE-based requires an explicit CAPE value; RMD-based requires the account breakdown with a positive traditional balance.
• Results surface includes a decision-metrics table (year 1 spending, median and P10 lifetime spending, cut frequency and magnitude, success rate, median and P10 terminal value), a spending-paths overlay with a focused-entry P10-P90 band and a real-vs-nominal toggle, an event timeline showing where each entry's rules fired, and a terminal wealth distribution.

Adds ranked allocation, CSV exports across all result surfaces, new .SIM tickers, and Fama-French 5 + Momentum factor regressions.

Strategy Builder

• Each rule can now use ranked allocation instead of fixed weights. Define a universe of tickers, a metric (total return, volatility, price-over-SMA, or RSI), and a lookback window. The engine holds the top or bottom N tickers with equal or inverse-volatility weighting, with an optional score threshold and a fallback ticker when nothing qualifies.
• New Ranking results tab surfaces the latest selection, scores per universe ticker, fallback firings, and the realized rerank history. Ranked rotations within a rule now count as rebalance events and incur the existing trading-cost and slippage haircuts on the decision row.
• Add four ranked recipes: Global Equities Momentum (dual momentum SPY vs EFA), Sector Rotation (top 3 S&P 500 sectors by 6-month return), Adaptive Asset Allocation (top 5 of 10 assets, inverse-vol weighting), and Accelerating Dual Momentum (composite 1/3/6-month momentum).

CSV Exports

• CSV export is now available across Portfolio Backtest, Tactical Allocation, Retirement Planner, Portfolio Optimizer, and Efficient Frontier runs.
• Every export menu surfaces its full table list (yearly / monthly returns, metric tables, tax events, lots, wash sales, yearly ledger, diagnostics breakdowns, retirement percentile paths, optimizer weights, frontier points). Multi-portfolio backtests prefix rows with portfolio index and name so flattened CSVs stay unambiguous.

SIM Tickers

• Add MTUM.SIM and UUP.SIM

Factor Regression

• Add Fama-French 5 Factor + Momentum, combining the FF5 factors with the Ken French daily momentum series (reported as UMD). Daily coverage starts July 1963.
• Add Fama-French Developed 5 Factor + Momentum for global and international portfolios, using the developed-market FF5 and WML momentum daily datasets. Daily coverage starts November 1990.

Rebalancing Comparison now reports tax drag alongside pretax metrics, leveraged ETF financing-cost mode with attribution decomposition.

Rebalancing Comparison

• Tax-aware sweeps now report pretax and after-tax metrics side-by-side instead of replacing pretax with after-tax. Every cell carries a tax-extras block (annual drag in basis points, total taxes paid, effective rate on gross sell-side turnover) and the response surfaces a tax-optimal cell pointer plus short narrative insights.
• New view chip (Pretax / After-tax / Tax drag / Δ) switches the table, scatter, and offset curves without rerunning the analysis. Dedicated tax-drag heatmap renders across the frequency × threshold grid when at least two of each are swept; cells average across offsets when present.

LETF Analysis

• Added six financing-rate sources (composite, SOFR, Fed funds, 3-month T-bill, flat override, constant spread over risk-free) so users can sensitivity-test leveraged ETF runs against the historical rate environment instead of a single flat input.
• Added three spread models (flat bps, rate-dependent, fund calibrated) and an optional rate floor for ZIRP/NIRP stress scenarios. Fund-calibrated mode pulls the per-fund swap-financing base from the existing LETF spec registry.

Retirement Planner decumulation policies, walk-forward optimizer and tactical APIs, richer Monte Carlo interpretation, and drawdown-duration optimization.

Retirement Planner

• Added progressive 2026 retirement tax mode with filing-status-aware brackets, taxable Social Security, and optional IRMAA estimation.
• Added allocation glidepaths, independent spending floors and ceilings, and block-bootstrap Monte Carlo configuration in the main planner form.
• Added first-class withdrawal sequencing and Roth conversion policy inputs, with annual median account-flow summaries, taxes, RMDs, and conversions exposed in tax-aware results.
• Failure diagnostics now include ranked next-step guidance instead of only raw thresholds, making it easier to choose the smallest change that is most likely to improve the plan.

Monte Carlo And Optimizer

• Monte Carlo results now include spending percentile paths, survival curves, representative scenarios, and expanded result tabs so runs expose path-level behavior beyond terminal wealth.
• Monte Carlo withdrawal-rule controls were reworked so advanced rules are easier to read and configure from the form.
• Portfolio Optimizer can now minimize longest drawdown duration and apply a longest-drawdown-days constraint in backtest-driven optimization.

Walk-Forward

• Added a shared walk-forward engine with deterministic window generation, stitched out-of-sample series, and common diagnostics.
• Added walk-forward endpoints for Portfolio Optimizer and Tactical Allocation, with methodology documentation and regression coverage. Tactical walk-forward runs evaluate fixed strategy rules across repeated train and test windows; tax-aware tactical walk-forward is not supported yet.

Tax Diagnostics

• Tax-aware results now include a first-class diagnostics tab with summary cards, driver tables, year and event drilldowns, concentrated-gain detection, warnings, confidence state, and CSV exports for the underlying tables.
• Tax trade log categories were normalized so implementation-ledger exports use consistent reason labels across tools.

Inflation-adjusted analytics, detailed tax calculator, tax diagnostics, and cross-tool polish.

Signals & Analytics

• Portfolio backtests, optimizer, Black-Litterman, and rebalancing sensitivity support inflation-adjusted mode with CPI-based deflation to start-date dollars.
• Added explicit 'below' mode to SMA signal.

Tax Diagnostics

• Portfolio Backtest and Strategy Builder tax-aware runs now return a canonical diagnostics layer that explains drag drivers, high-impact events, concentrated unrealized gains, and implementation risks.
• Tax-aware results now distinguish between applicable, degraded, and not-applicable diagnostics states so non-taxable accounts and partially degraded inputs are represented explicitly.

Tax Rates Tool

• Detailed income breakdown with ordinary tax, LTCG, NIIT, and total federal tax by bracket for 2025/2026. State tax overlay on chart.

Data

• Added EFA.SIM, EEM.SIM, EMB.SIM, SCZ.SIM, AGG.SIM, LQD.SIM, HYG.SIM, JNK.SIM, MUB.SIM, VCIT.SIM, and VCLT.SIM tickers.

Added dividend and income tracking in portfolio backtesting.

Portfolio Backtesting Feature

• Added dividend and income tracking in portfolio backtesting with detailed reporting.

Added verification-suite coverage, improved leveraged ETF analysis tool.

Tooling & Validation

• Added canonical verification-suite cases with more high-value portfolio and tax edge cases.
• Improved detail of leveraged ETF analysis tool.

Bugs and Pricing

• Fixed a user-reported bug with tax lot accounting for Decemberwash sales that could cause incorrect loss carryforward and tax drag results in some cases. I apologize for this - all users on paid plans get a free additional month.
• Thank you for all the support! I've simplified the user plans to just the free and pro tier, given that infrastrucutre costs are (for the most part) covered. This moves a lot of features into public/free availability, and also means that all users get access to the full platform for free with a reasonable usage limit, and can upgrade to Pro for more intensive use.

Added uploaded series and reusable research tickers, reorganized Workspace navigation, expanded tax-aware replay and flat-tax modeling.

Custom Data And Research Tickers

• Added uploaded series support so Pro users can import CSV time series, assign ticker aliases, and reuse them in supported workflows such as Factor Regression.
• Research tickers now support first-class sources beyond expressions, including Workspace portfolios, strategies, and uploaded series.
• Workspace objects can now be saved as reusable research tickers, making custom research inputs easier to carry across runs.

Workspace And Workflow Improvements

• Workspace now uses category-based navigation for Saved Runs and reusable Library items, making it easier to browse portfolios, strategies, tickers, metric presets, and other saved work.
• Published comparison links now hydrate correctly for anonymous viewers, so shared compare URLs open without requiring sign-in.

Tax-Aware Modeling And Sharing

• Added simple flat tax mode for tax-aware analysis when a single all-in rate is the right approximation.
• Share and reopen flows now preserve tax-aware assumptions more accurately across Portfolio Backtest, Rebalancing Sensitivity, and Tactical Allocation.
• Expanded tax detail views with stronger event, wash-sale, and yearly-ledger reporting, plus export support, while tightening lot, dividend, valuation, and rebalance determinism.

Retirement planning, richer portfolio research workflows, expanded optimizer and factor diagnostics, and broader workflow guidance.

Retirement And Monte Carlo

• Added the Retirement Planner for historical and Monte Carlo retirement sustainability analysis with spending rules, income streams, account-type modeling, and failure-mode analysis.
• Retirement Planner now supports explicit decumulation policies, Roth conversion modeling, and annual account-flow summaries for tax-aware plans.
• Expanded Monte Carlo lifecycle modeling with multi-phase plans and additional withdrawal strategies including VPW, Guyton-Klinger, CAPE-based, and RMD-based rules.
• Added Student-t (fat-tailed) and regime-switching (2-state Markov) Monte Carlo return models alongside the existing parametric, historical-bootstrap, and block-bootstrap choices. Student-t dof auto-fits from history; regime-switching surfaces the estimated transition matrix and stationary bear fraction in the response.
• Monte Carlo gained an opt-in rolling-historical companion that replays the same plan across every overlapping past window for side-by-side comparison with the simulated distribution. The Retirement Planner uses this to render a dual success probability with an inline explainer when the two sides disagree by more than 10 percentage points.
• Retirement Planner now supports VPW, Guyton-Klinger, CAPE-based, and RMD-based spending rules in the annual decumulation engine (previously limited to fixed, percentage, and guardrails).
• Retirement and tax planners now preserve more explicit assumptions in results and saved-run metadata.

Portfolio Research

• Portfolio Backtest added regression diagnostics, dynamic withdrawal strategies, improved research handoffs, and first-class reusable research assets across saved analyses and Library flows.
• Strategy Builder added signal history output so allocation changes can be traced back to the triggering regime inputs.
• The platform now supports first-class glidepath portfolio definitions for reusable retirement and allocation workflows.

Factor And Optimization Diagnostics

• Factor Regression expanded beyond the initial factor sets with broader model coverage, richer diagnostics, and custom factor builder support.
• Portfolio Optimizer added SWR and PWR objectives, cash overlay and borrow-spread assumptions, and richer backtest constraints including metric bounds, turnover caps, and per-asset bounds.

Added new 401k tool to compare pre-tax vs Roth contributions, compensation comparison tool, and improve depth of tax-aware engine.

New Tools

• Added new 401k comparison tool to compare pre-tax vs Roth contributions with tax-aware modeling of future wages, grants, and AMT implications.
• Added new compensation comparison tool to compare different compensation structures with tax-aware modeling of future wages, grants, and AMT implications.

Tax-Aware Modeling

• Added federal bracket mode selection for tax-aware backtesting: current 2026 schedule, year-matched historical brackets (1998–2026), or fully custom federal tax brackets.

Improved sharing functionality, improved synthetic ticker transparency.

General Improvements

• Added HTML embed support for shared results in the share modal
• Added more detail about methodology of generating synthetic tickers in the Data Sources documentation

New factor regression and PCA tools.

Modeling And Analysis

• Added new factor regression tool.
• Added new PCA tool.

General Improvements

• Click on modified ticker to copy ticker expression

This release I focused on making the platform more consistent with platform level settings and making analysis more accessible, and also expanded on some tool functionality.

Modeling And Analysis

• Added turnover-based transaction cost modeling to walk-forward optimizer runs.
• Added ability for users to add AMT future assumptions for future wages and grants.
• Expanded Rebalancing Sensitivity with explicit signed trading-day offsets and clearer sweep controls.

Workflow Consistency

• Added Tool Defaults in Settings for the benchmark ticker and risk-free configuration used across tools by default.
• Expanded compare support across optimizer studies, signal analyses, rebalancing sensitivity runs, and other saved analyses.

For ArthaPilot v2.0, I focused on building out a central hub for users to be able to save their research and runs, so that they would be able to compare across configurations and build on prior work more easily.

Workspace

• Added the Workspace page as the main place to browse Analyses and Library items.
• Expanded save flows so more tools can reopen prior analyses with their state intact.
• Added compare workflows and version diffs for saved work.
• Expanded the Library model across signals, strategies, portfolios, assumptions presets, metric presets, and compare sets.

Portfolio Research And Optimization

• Added efficient frontier, walk-forward backtest, and Black-Litterman optimizer modes.
• Added benchmark-relative charts, regime breakdowns, richer visuals, and broader metric coverage across portfolio analysis.

Tax Profile And Transparency

• Added dual-state tax profile support for resident and work-state modeling.
• Expanded after-tax drill-downs with clearer tax tabs, yearly detail, and wash-sale chain visibility.
• Added supporting investor workflows such as research tickers and broader synthetic series support.

First release of ArthaPilot with the suite of tools that I used personally.

Portfolio Backtesting

• Multi-allocation portfolio construction with configurable rebalancing schedules and trigger logic.
• Allow for principal, contributions, withdrawals, and scheduled cashflow events.
• Added condition-based allocation, sleeve-based portfolio logic, and price or total-return analysis modes.

Tax-Aware Research And Planning

• Added lot-level tax accounting with holding-period classification and multiple lot-selection methods.
• Added wash sale handling, loss carryforwards, dividends, and tax loss harvesting workflows.
• Added state tax calculations for all 50 states plus DC, along with AMT analysis and pre-tax versus Roth comparison tools.
• Added after-tax equity curves, tax drag analysis, and detailed trade and tax reporting.

Strategy, Signal, And Portfolio Research

• Added a visual Strategy Builder, reusable signals, and a public Gallery.
• Added signal composition, risk-off switching, and community portfolio workflows.
• Added private, unlisted, and published visibility controls for shared research.

Analysis Toolkit

• Added Monte Carlo simulation with historical, bootstrap, and parametric models.
• Added the Portfolio Optimizer with efficient frontier visualization.
• Added Asset Analyzer, Rebalancing Sensitivity, leverage analysis, synthetic ticker support, and a verification suite.